Monitoring VET trends – Monitoring method and process

The Swiss Observatory for Vocational Educaiton and Training (OBS SFUVET) uses a self-developed monitoring method to identify technological, economic and social trends and associated challenges for vocational education and training.

The Swiss Observatory for Vocational Educaiton and Training (OBS SFUVET) monitors trends by examining a source pool of current scientific and technical papers published by practitioners, researchers and policymakers in Switzerland and other countries. It also takes into account the various policies being discussed within the Federal Assembly and in cantonal parliaments. Finally, OBS SFUVET researchers follow a multi-step systematic procedure to analyse scientific and specialist documents and parliamentary proceedings in order to identify trends and potential challenges affecting VET. This gives rise to further questions and enables identification of trend topics that can be explored in greater depth. Publications, conferences and workshops with specialists facilitate professional discussion and the further development of VET.

Monitoring method

Lead questions

Trend monitoring activities are guided by the following lead questions:

  1. What technological, economic or social trends and developments have an impact on VET?
  2. How are key aspects of the VET system changing as a result of these developments? (e.g. employability of VET graduates or willingness of companies to train apprentices)
  3. Where is action needed to ensure that the VET system remains functional and sustainable?
Monitoring process

OBS SFUVET has developed a multiple-step monitoring process to systematically address these lead questions.

1. Identify changes and challenges affecting VET:

SFUVET researchers systematically screen trends with this aim in mind. Over a period of one to two years, they search through and analyse recent publications from the source pool in order to detect trends and possible challenges affecting vocational education and training. They then document the quantitative and qualitative results of trend monitoring on the SFUVET website and draft brief working papers devoted to selected topics (see 'Trends in Focus' section).

2. Categorise trend topics and challenges and choose follow-up questions 

To this end, researchers systematically work on a given trend topic and clarify its importance for vocational education and training. This is accomplished through an in-depth review of literature and the processing of statistical data. The results appear in the form of trend reports in the corresponding OBS SFUVET publication series, e.g. the trend report on digitalisation and VET released in the autumn 2018.

3. Assess and conduct in-depth analysis of particular trend topics through research: This analysis of selected trend topics takes place within the context of specific research and development projects pursued by OBS SFUVET. The results also appear in the form of trend reports, e.g. the trend report ‘Trained health care assistants - what are the prospects after graduation?’ (2017) and the trend report ‘Federal Vocational Baccalaureate: Admission, Career Paths and Prospects' (2020).

3. Assess and conduct in-depth analysis of particular trend topics

This analysis of selected trend topics takes place within the context of specific research and development projects pursued by OBS SFUVET. The results also appear in the form of trend reports, e.g. Federal Vocational Baccalaureate: Admission, Career Paths and Prospects (2020) or Areas Of Tension In Vocational Education And Training In Switzerland And Other Countries (2022).

4. Share and develop results further

OBS SFUVET researchers discuss their findings together with representatives of the Confederation, the cantons and professional organisations as well as with vocational education and training specialists. The OBS SFUVET Advisory Board is comprised of representatives of professional organisations, the cantons, the Confederation and research institutions. Each year, it receives trend monitoring data and assesses their relevance and urgency for vocational education and training. OBS SFUVET organises transfer events with associations, professional organisations, companies and training providers to share its findings with stakeholders from various occupational fields and VET practitioners.

The graphic shows OBS SFUVET's multiple step monitoring process
Adobe Stock/SFUVET
Source pool

The data basis for trend monitoring is a source pool comprised of articles from around 30 national and international journals and periodicals covering various disciplines and VET-related areas of activity. The source pool includes peer-reviewed journals as well as grey research reports, discussion papers and working papers. Finally, the source pool provides access to information on policy issues pertaining to VET. Policy issues relevant to VET can be found in a newsletter produced by the Information and Documentation Centre (IDES) of the Swiss Conference of Cantonal Ministers of Education (EDK). In this newsletter, we find the most recent policy proposals submitted to cantonal parliaments and the Federal Assembly. Over a period of one to two years, researchers examine and analyse these publications – i.e. articles, reports and information regarding policy issues contained in the source pool – to identify trends and potential challenges affecting VET.

Since 2018, there have been over 2,800 articles and reports on VET practices, policies and educational science. In the 2022 monitoring period (running from autumn 2021 to autumn 2022), researchers consulted around 440 different research publications and examined roughly 70 policy issues from the IDES newsletter. Examples of important reference material from the source pool include the following:

Standardised model used for trend monitoring

In order to answer the lead questions, OBS SFUVET researchers have developed a standardised model that they use to analyse sources and corresponding analytical categories (see Fig. 1). Using these analytical categories as a frame of reference, all sources taken into account during the monitoring process are coded for subsequent quantitative and qualitative assessment. This standard approach is based on Swiss educational documents deemed to be of strategic and scientific importance (e.g. Leitbild BB2030 (SERI 2018), the Swiss Education Report (SKBF 2018) and the Federal Council Dispatch on the Promotion of Education, Research and Innovation for 2017-2020).

The main categories considered in the standardised model:

1. Current megatrends

The current megatrends include upskilling, lifelong learning, digital transformation, shortages of skilled workers, developments on the labour market and the national and international image of VET. Currently less prominent trends include globalisation, health and environmental trends and migration (see latest see latest results of 2022 trend monitoring).

2. System inputs

‘System inputs’ are activities that the Confederation, the cantons, professional organisations, companies, workplace trainers and vocational school teachers pursue in  order to achieve important vocational education and training objectives. This includes workplace training, classroom instruction, branch courses, professional education, the corresponding pedagogical-didactic methods, the forms of teaching and learning used, teacher training, career guidance, case management to help young people with transitions, review and revision of training programmes and the partnership dynamics between the Confederation, the cantons and professional organisations to help shape the general conditions governing the Swiss system.

3. System outcomes

‘System outcomes’ are short- to medium-term objectives to be achieved by system stakeholders. Important outcomes include integration capacity, system flexibility/permeability as well as education and training options. In addition, successful training and employability of qualification holders are important system outcomes. Added to this is the occupational and educational mobility of qualification holders as well as the importance of VET at national and international level ('image').

Overarching social values such as innovation, social security, economic prosperity and social participation are additional categories relating to the desired long-term effects of a functioning VET system. They enable comprehensive discussion of the results of monitoring with respect to the long-term role and future prospects of vocational education and training in society.

The graphic shows the standardised model of OBS SUVET's trend monitoring
Adobe Stock/SFUVET
Analysis of trend monitoring data

All articles, reports and policy issues found in the source pool are coded, i.e. indexed and sorted into analytical categories. This coding can be used for quantitative assessment, e.g. to identify whether certain key system inputs and outcomes are frequentily mentioned together with a specific megatrend. On this basis, assumptions can be drawn about potential challenges affecting VET. The OBS SFUVET Advisory Board and other VET researchers and practitioners discuss and assess these results at regular intervals. This analysis is then taken into account in the orientation of SFUVET publications and follow-up projects.

Publications and products

Research projects are initiated in response to trend monitoring. Results are published in various forms:

  • Website: yearly update of the results of the literature and policy monitoring
  • Trends in focus: regularly published short working papers on identified trend topics.
  • Trend reports: OBS SFUVET has its own publication series of trend reports, which are published at regular intervals

The transfer of trend monitoring results is achieved through the sharing of knowledge and information with VET practitioners and policymakers. The following means are used for this purpose: